Tony Blair Goes Wobbly on Us [Lileks]

Tony Blair Goes Wobbly on Us

BY JAMES LILEKS

Surely the Democratic victories brought long faces to the terrorist schemers: If the United States bolts out of Iraq as quickly as now seems possible, al-Qaida will be left without a plan for the occupation. They'd anticipated taking power in '08, after a protracted leeching of American resolve -- but now?

Al-Qaida lacks the boots on the ground to perform the nationwide slaughter required to sunder a nascent democracy. It's one thing to ask your patrons for more bullets; it's quite another to request overnight delivery of the backhoes for mass graves. Must not show lack of foresight.

Heads will roll! More than usual, anyway.

Then again, disaster may not befall Iraq. It may suffer more of the targeted, telegenic chaos that makes for dandy CNN reports, but the nation might still be stabilized -- if we reach out to new partners. And if you believe Tony Blair, those brand new pals would be Syria and Iran.

Yes, Blair's gone wobbly. Some sort of political bird flu has killed all the hawks and replaced them with creatures that mill around civilized capitals making cooing noises and fleeing in panic when someone toots a car horn.

Said the PM: "A major part of the answer to Iraq lies not in Iraq itself but outside it, in the whole of the region where the same forces are at work and where the roots of this global terrorism are to be found."

He has a point, but one might suggest that waging proxy war on the U.S. and the Iraqi government ought instead to be rewarded with a few Tomahawks in the summer homes of senior mullahs.

That, however, is the history of this war -- half-measures, squandered momentum. One side carefully calibrates how much psychological distress may be exacted in interrogations, and the other calibrates the centrifuges that will make the nuclear bombs.

One small problem for Blair: Iran, according to the Telegraph newspaper, is actively involved in selecting the next batch of al-Qaida leaders. Put that together with another revelation from Britain: Al-Q is intensifying its efforts to assemble nuclear material -- 2005 alone saw 16 thwarted attempts to smuggle plutonium and uranium, and we may presume the terrorists tried more than 16 times.

Negotiating with these cheery lads would be like sitting down with the Mafia to discuss the future of trash hauling, except that Tony Soprano doesn't peel off banknotes to fund suicide bombers. Tony wants to live. Our enemies think the Bada-Bing is in heaven.

Blair put his finger on something, though. Where should all the healing begin? Why, in the locus of all injustice, of course: "We should start with Israel/Palestine. That is the core."

The persistence of this delusion -- that the capitulation of Israel will end the problem -- cannot be explained. Somehow decent and rational people believe that indecent and irrational men will agree to forgo their hatreds for the mundane work of building a civil society.

Blair continued: "We should then make progress on Lebanon."

We should indeed. We should also cure cancer and invent cold-fusion hovercars and petition McDonald's to make Shamrock Shakes all year 'round; that doesn't mean any of it's likely.

This doesn't mean you can't talk. Behind-the-scenes chats with the mullahs to spell out consequences and requirements would be fine. But coming cap-in-hand looks weak, and the Iranians may well think that if you've doffed your hat, you won't need your head. Allow us to help you with that.

Future historians will be baffled: "They said they were going to destroy you; why didn't you do anything?"

Well, there was this politician who sent some naughty e-mails, and that seemed terribly important at the time. Some sixth-century Romans would probably understand; the rock in the sandal can be so vexatious, you forget all about the hordes massing on the plain.

But it's still dispiriting to see Blair wobble with such vigor. What's the saying? As the Anglosphere goes, so goes the Anglosphere.

Paging John Howard of Australia; Mr. Howard to the courtesy phone.

Nov. 15, 2006

(James Lileks can be contacted at newhouse@lileks.com)